CBS Calls Indiana for Clinton: [Is this a "Dewey Wins!" Call?]

News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Tue May 6, 2008 9:57 PM EDT

Article Source: CBS News

politics, barack-obama, hillary-clinton, cbs

Clinton pulled off an Indiana win in what was a virtual must-win Midwestern state. With 74 percent of the votes being reported in the state, she was leading Obama 52 percent to 48 percent.

Obama's win mirrored earlier triumphs in Southern states with large black populations: Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina among them. With 53 percent of the votes in North Carolina being reported, Obama was leading Clinton 56 percent to 42 percent.

Now, when CBS called it in Indiana, the numbers were closer to 54/46. At this time, we haven't gotten any numbers from Lake County (Gary/East Chicago) and many of the Obama-leaning counties aren't all in yet. So, echoing the title, has Dewey won again?

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{"commentId":1773520,"authorDomain":"ratigan"}

Ratigan

Obviously, this seed has a questionable shelf life, but it is of note beyond this initial moment in time. Looking at the exit polls, this (52/48) is supposed to be the end result. And, as I said in the body, we've not seen the Lake County results or the full results from counties surrounding Indianapolis.

Three possibilities:
(1) CBS wants to devilishly keep a story alive in the Democratic race by keeping Clinton going longer than she should (as an Indiana loss all but kills the campaign). I give this a credence level of one out of five because it would so clearly be undermined by the end of the night that it's not really in their interest (plus, you can't change the votes that have already been cast...generally speaking)

(2) CBS are just trying to get a jump on the story a la Florida 2000. That's got a credence level of 4 of 5 for so blindingly short-sighted to be likely.

(3) Just your basic human error. It was 8 points apart when they called it and it wasn't likely to get so tight so soon. I'd say this is most likely with some subconcious (2) effect.

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#1 - Tue May 6, 2008 10:02 PM EDT

{"commentId":1773602,"authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

SteveHouse

Dewey certainly wins, kudos for the reference. We won't know about Lake until maybe midnight, by the way. According to Telestrator Guy on CNN, according to the county election people, the sheer volume of absentee ballots won't be counted until midnight. Got your espresso?

{"commentId":1773602,"threadId":"260772","contentId":"1473108","authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

#2 - Tue May 6, 2008 10:28 PM EDT

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Clinton narrowly takes Indiana, CNN projects	CNN	Wed May 7	2
Non-Democrats Influenced Ind., N.C. Vote	CBS News	Wed May 7	0
Has Obama finally clinched it? - By John Dickerson - Slate Magazine	Slate	Wed May 7	1
IN, NC exit poll highlights	Associated Press	Tue May 6	1
Hillary Clinton's 4.2% chance of winning the nomination	Slate	Wed May 7	3

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CBS Calls Indiana for Clinton: [Is this a "Dewey Wins!" Call?]

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